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Extra resources for Slippery Polls Uses and Abuses of Opinion Surveys from Arab States
Sample text
Given their dissimilar history and geography, Egyptians and Kuwaitis also differ greatly, again according to the mid-2007 Pew poll, in their views of another major regional contender: Iran. A surprisingly high 49 percent of Egyptians say that a nuclear-armed Iran would be at least a “somewhat serious” threat to their country, but only 27 percent name Iran as among their top three threats today. Kuwaitis beg to differ: twice as many see Iran as already a serious threat, and even more (71 percent) say that a nuclear-armed Iran would be one.
The third way of loading this question is the most egregious of all, because it is invisible. It is “sequence bias”: influencing the results through placement of questions in a series. ”8 If ever there were a case of leading the witness, this is it. Given all of the preceding, it is no wonder that this pollster’s website invites prospective clients to pay for polls that will “show” the public is on their side: “The full results and subtotals belong exclusively to the client, who has the sole right to release or withhold the information.
This test is the hardest but also the most important, and it is one that even some of the best pollsters do not always meet. Tenth, and last: do not jump to any conclusions from poll data, even of the more credible and more fairly presented kind, about any other aspect of Arab policies or political behavior. This dimension of the subject at hand is explored at length in the remainder of this study. Policy Focus #82 Part II What Polls of Arab Publics Really Show Introduction: Selecting the Best Surveys highlighted how the greatest care must be taken both in evaluating Arab opinion polls and in making generalizations based on them.
Slippery Polls Uses and Abuses of Opinion Surveys from Arab States by David Pollock
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