By William R Reichenstein
ISBN-10: 0943205301
ISBN-13: 9780943205304
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Example text
A financial analyst should first decide if he or she believes financial markets are best described by a random walk or mean reversion and use the appropriate set of projections. The analyst can then show a client the projected probability distributions of ending wealth on several portfolios with distributions that correspond to the client's holding period. The graphs of ending real wealth (per $1 invested) provide a picture of the risk-return trade-offs of alternative asset mixes. These should help clients make informed investment decisions that reflect their own risk tolerances.
Moreover, the subsistence wealth should certainly be cast in real terms. Because the analysis in this study relies on real returns and the closely aligned excess returns, it would seem to fit the log (W - §) format. The third case changes both of the key assumptions in the 1969 papers. It assumes that returns are mean reverting and that investors are more risk 22 34 Samuelson (1989), p. 11,emphasis his. I~zuestmentImplications of TkBivenificatioft averse than the log W utility function implies.
Financial advisors may find several figures useful in conveying the benefits of diversification. Figures 1,4, and 12 in the appendixes highlight the benefits of diversification across debt and equity. For example, portfolio A70 provides a more desirable distribution of returns than the bond-only portfolio. Figure 13 in the appendixes and, to a lesser extent, Figure 1highlight the benefits of diversification within each asset class-that is, the benefits of diversifying Time Diverszj5~~1tio~ Revisited across short-term, intermediate-term,and long-term debt and across small and large stocks.
Time diversification revisited by William R Reichenstein
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