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By Lakdasa Wijetilleke

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Borodiuk (Doctor of Economics, Accounting Chamber of Ukraine), and Mr. Turchinov (Member of Parliament, Budget Committee, Verkhovna Rada); on Social Protection Policies: Mr. Yaremenko (Deputy Minister of Economy), Mr. Soldatenko (Head of the Main Department, Ministry of Economy), and Ms. Zinkevych (Deputy Head of the Main Department, Ministry of Economy). World Bank and other experts who assisted and complemented the work of the Ukrainian teams included: Foreign Trade and Commercial Policies: Michael Michaely with Veronika Movchan; Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations: Deborah Wetzel, Thomas Cochran, Mark Davis, Sean O'Connel, Leonid Polishchuk and Lucan Way; Public Expenditures on Education and Health: Frederick Golladay, Galina Sotirova, Kate Schecter and Ghanaraj Chellaraj: Legal Threats to Fiscal Sustainability: Joachim Lippott (Legal Advisor, TACIS/UEPLAC); Agriculture: Csaba Csaki, Mark Lundell and Ian Shuker; Banking Reform: Angela Prigozhina and Alan Roe; Coal Sector Policy: Heinz Hendriks: Shadow Economy: Maxim Ljubinsky; District Heating Policy: Carolyn Gochenour: Electricity Market Reform: Laszlo Lovei, Istvan Dobozi and Sergey Milenky, Environment: Alexi Slenzak; Education Finance: Katerina Petrina; Fiscal Reform: Mark Davis; Gas Sector Policy: Laszlo Lovei and Konstantin Skorik; Housing and Water Sectors: Ihor Korablev; International Trade: Veronica Movchan; Labor Market: Arvo Kuddo; Pension Reform: Larisa Leshchenko and Katerina Petrina; Private Sector Development: Gregory Jedrzejczak and Vladimir Kreacic; Prospects For Economic Reform and Debt Sustainability: Andriy Storozhuk; Social Assistance: Galina Sotirova; and Transport Sector: Pedro Taborga.

The lack of true structural reforms in large enterprises is the most serious problem facing Ukraine. The policy of protecting enterprises needs to be abandoned and replaced as quickly as possible by a policy of hard budget constraints. Faced with hard budget constraints and the threat of closure if they do not become self-financing, enterprises will seek out new investors (both domestic and foreign), new markets, new production technologies, and new management methods. They will also lease or sell underused space and equipment, paving the way for the creation of new enterprises that can employ the people who will be laid off when overstaffed state enterprises release redundant employees.

If the government instead had enforced bankruptcy, growth-supporting structural reforms would have taken place far more rapidly. Second, as noted above, budget deficits have crowded enterprises out of the capital market (figure 2). At barely 2 percent of GDP in 1998, Ukraine had the lowest ratio of bank credit to the private sector of any transition country other than the Kyrgyz Republic (the ratio for transition economies in general is about 40 percent). Third, commercial bank credit to enterprises is among the most expensive in the world, with real interest rates on commercial bank loans peaking at 100 percent in September 1998 and was still running at 3040 percent in the fall of 1999.

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