By Paul Stevens
ISBN-10: 1349086738
ISBN-13: 9781349086733
ISBN-10: 1349086754
ISBN-13: 9781349086757
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2 52 INTERNATIONAL GAS or blown down (which leads to earlier gas production at the expense of the loss of condensate reserves). This is a choice which will be made by the producers but which substantially affects our plans for future gas flows. For the moment, and for the next few years, we have sufficient supply available. We see, however, a substantial need for newly contracted supplies in the 1990s and beyond, which Sleipner would have gone some way towards filling. We see a lower ratio of contracted reserves to demand than we have had in the past, making us more vulnerable to unexpected developments (such as new fields not corning forward on the hoped-for scale), and giving us less time to react to these developments (by, for example, seekig further imports).
This may give scope for increased cooperation and new forms of risk sharing between producers and marketers. Likely trends in prices for competing fuels do not promise a higher rent to the gas industry over the next decade. This may yield increasing pressures to minimize the total cost of production, transmission and distribution, and there may exist substantial scope for improved utilization of a nearly depreciated gas grid. 6 THE FUTURE OF NORWEGIAN GAS How will Norway position herself in this market?
More flexible contractual arrangements, shorter lead times, and end-use competitiveness in continually changing markets are key words in this regard. A further implication is the need for sellers to establish a more diversified customer base to adapt to looser market structures. The question of direct customer access will be accentuated. Mutual interests between buyers and sellers exist that have not been fully exploited. New markets remain to be developed. This may give scope for increased cooperation and new forms of risk sharing between producers and marketers.
International Gas: Prospects and Trends by Paul Stevens
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