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By Dennis Stamey

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It appears to me that the evidence, which was proposed to be given in this case, would not have shewn that it was probable that the plaintiff had made the contract, which the defendant contended he had made; I do not see how the fact that a man has once or more in his life acted in a particular way makes it probable that he so acted on a given 20 Basic Concepts occasion. The admission of such evidence would be fraught with the greatest inconvenience. Where, indeed, the question is one of guilty knowledge or intent, as in the cases of uttering forged documents, or base coin, such evidence is admissible as tending to establish a necessary ingredient of the crime.

The generalisation thus forms the major premiss of a syllogism: A finger pattern x, y, z can be borne by one person only. M bears that finger pattern. M is that person. In this instance the major premiss is based on a well-developed body of scientific knowledge; yet it is striking that even in this context forensic scientists are very reluctant to give precise numerical estimates of the chances of more than one person in a given population having the same fingerprints. It is only exceptionally that we are in a position to appeal to such scientific generalisations as a basis for making inferences from evidence.

But here the evidential fact is seen to rest implicitly on some generalization about hounds; and that generalization needs to be made explicit. Doing this, we obtain the following: (a) bloodhounds when put on a scent at the place of an offence can find a person who was there; (b) this bloodhound, being so put, found this accused; (c) therefore this accused was there. But now, with our attention on premise (a), and studying it as a probandum, it may turn out to be loose and unacceptable. Perhaps it can be acceptable only in this form: bloodhounds of recorded pedigree and oft-tested qualities, when put on a scent, etc.

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Flying saucers and the dark forces by Dennis Stamey


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